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ORACLE report · Oct 18, 2026

“What is the current federal funds rate target range?”

The freshest numeric information (Sep 16 2026) projects a 2026 median federal‑funds rate of 4.1 % with a projected range of roughly 3.6 %–4.1 %. No source in the supplied set provides the officially set target range as of Oct 18 2026, so the current range cannot be confirmed; only projections are available, which are therefore GUESSED for present policy.

The claim ledger

  1. 1
    PROVEN

    The June 17 2026 Summary of Economic Projections shows a median 2026 federal‑funds rate of 3.8 % and a central‑tendency range of 3.6 %–4.1 %.

    Projection, not the actual target set by the FOMC.

    Federal Reserve, Summary of Economic Projections (PDF) · Oct 18, 2026 · source

  2. 2
    PROVEN

    The same June 2026 projection lists the 2027 median rate at 3.6 % with a range of 3.1 %–3.9 % and the 2028 median at 3.4 % with a range of 2.9 %–3.9 %.

    Long‑run forecasts, not current policy.

    Federal Reserve, Summary of Economic Projections (PDF) · Oct 18, 2026 · source

  3. 3
    PROVEN

    The FRED series “FEDTARMD” (updated Sep 16 2026) reports a median 2026 federal‑funds rate of 4.1 %.

    Median of the projected target‑range; still a forecast, not the enacted range.

    Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED – FEDTARMD · Sep 16, 2026 · source

  4. 4
    PROVEN

    The Sep 16 2026 FRED entry notes that the median value represents the midpoint of the projected appropriate target range for the federal‑funds rate for the specified year.

    Clarifies that the 4.1 % figure is a projection, not the actual range.

    Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED – FEDTARMD notes · Sep 16, 2026 · source

  5. 5
    PROVEN

    No source among the provided passages gives the officially announced federal‑funds target range as of Oct 18 2026.

    The most recent numeric data are projections; the current range has not been published in the supplied set.

    All supplied sources · Oct 18, 2026

  6. 6
    PROVEN

    The 2015 FOMC transcript mentions that the target range was “currently below normal” but provides no numeric range.

    Outdated and non‑numeric; does not inform the 2026 target.

    Federal Reserve, FOMC Meeting Transcript Oct 27‑28 2015 · Oct 18, 2026 · source

  7. 7
    PROVEN

    The CRS report (retrieved Oct 18 2026) discusses the Fed’s mandate but does not state a current federal‑funds target range.

    Policy discussion only; no rate figure.

    EveryCRSReport.com, Changing the Federal Reserve’s Mandate · Oct 18, 2026 · source

  8. 8
    PROVEN

    The congressional CRS product (R42962) retrieved Oct 18 2026 contains no numeric target‑range information.

    Mentions low rates in narrative, but no specific range.

    Congress.gov, CRS Product R42962 · Oct 18, 2026 · source

The stale-source check

The June 17 2026 projection PDF (retrieved Oct 18 2026) predates the Sep 16 2026 FRED update and may not reflect any rate decision made after June; the 2015 transcript, the 2011 CRS report, and the CRS product R42962 are all several years old and cannot be used for the current range.

What would change the answer

  • —A new FOMC press release or statement published after Oct 18 2026 that lists the target range.
  • —An updated entry in the FRED FEDTARMD series reflecting a post‑Oct 18 2026 decision.
  • —A Federal Reserve website page (e.g., https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy.htm) showing the current target range.
  • —A reputable news article quoting the latest FOMC decision with the exact range.

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