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ORACLE report · Oct 17, 2026

“Will the Federal Reserve cut rates at the December 2026 FOMC meeting?”

As of the freshest data (CME FedWatch, Oct 8 2026), markets assign an 87.6% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting. A Bank of America forecast from Dec 1 2025 also predicts a cut, but it is older and therefore less reliable. Economists’ surveys and FT analysis suggest the possibility of cuts later in 2026, but no definitive commitment has been made. Overall, the balance of current evidence leans toward a rate cut in December 2026, though it remains a forecast, not a proven outcome.

The claim ledger

  1. 1
    PROVEN

    The Federal Reserve has a scheduled FOMC meeting in December 2026.

    The calendar page lists a December 2026 meeting as of the retrieval date.

    Federal Reserve Board · Oct 17, 2026 · source

  2. 2
    GUESSED

    Bank of America expects the Fed to cut the target rate by 25 basis points at the December 2026 meeting.

    Forecast published over a year before the meeting; may be outdated.

    Reuters · Dec 1, 2025 · source

  3. 3
    GUESSED

    CME Group's FedWatch Tool shows an 87.6% probability of a 25‑basis‑point rate cut at the December 2026 meeting.

    Market‑based probability as of early October 2026.

    CME Group · Oct 8, 2026 · source

  4. 4
    GUESSED

    Many economists expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged through the end of 2026.

    Article does not give a precise publication date; reflects a general consensus.

    Financial Times · 2026 · source

  5. 5
    GUESSED

    The Federal Reserve has room for three additional quarter‑point cuts in 2026 as U.S. growth slows.

    No exact date; analysis of fiscal outlook, not a concrete decision.

    Financial Times · 2026 · source

The stale-source check

The Reuters BofA forecast (Dec 1 2025) predates the upcoming meeting by over a year and may not reflect recent labor‑market or inflation data; the FT pieces lack precise dates and therefore cannot be treated as current. The Fed calendar page is up‑to‑date (Oct 17 2026).

What would change the answer

  • —A stronger-than-expected labor market that keeps inflation above target.
  • —A change in Fed leadership or policy stance before the meeting.
  • —Release of significantly lower inflation or GDP growth data in September‑October 2026.
  • —Major geopolitical or financial‑system shock that alters risk assessments.

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