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ORACLE report · Oct 18, 2026

“Will the Federal Reserve cut rates at the December 2026 FOMC meeting?”

Oct 18 2026: The Fed’s calendar confirms a Dec 2026 FOMC meeting (PROVEN). Forecasts diverge: Goldman Sachs (Jun 07 2026) says no 2026 cut, while Bloomberg and Reuters (Dec 10 2025) expected one cut in 2026. No official Fed statement as of today confirms a cut at the Dec 2026 meeting, so the outcome remains uncertain.

The claim ledger

  1. 1
    PROVEN

    The Federal Reserve has a scheduled FOMC meeting in December 2026.

    The calendar page lists a December 2026 meeting; the page was retrieved today.

    Federal Reserve – Meeting calendars and information · Oct 18, 2026 · source

  2. 2
    GUESSED

    Goldman Sachs no longer expects any Fed rate cut in 2026, pushing its forecast to June and December 2027.

    Analyst forecast, not an official Fed decision.

    Bloomberg · Jun 07, 2026 · source

  3. 3
    GUESSED

    Bloomberg reported on Dec 10, 2025 that the Fed projected one rate cut in 2026.

    Projection made after the Dec 2025 meeting.

    Bloomberg · Dec 10, 2025 · source

  4. 4
    GUESSED

    Reuters reported on Dec 10, 2025 that Fed policymakers saw only one rate cut in 2026.

    Statement from the FOMC policy statement, indicating expectation, not a decision.

    Reuters · Dec 10, 2025 · source

  5. 5
    PROVEN

    On Dec 10, 2025 the Fed voted 9‑3 to lower the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage point to a range of 3.5‑3.75 %.

    Actual rate decision recorded in the article.

    Bloomberg · Dec 10, 2025 · source

  6. 6
    GUESSED

    A Reuters poll on Nov 12, 2025 found 80 % of economists expected a Fed rate cut in the December 2025 meeting.

    Poll about the Dec 2025 meeting, not the Dec 2026 meeting.

    Reuters · Nov 12, 2025 · source

The stale-source check

The Dec 10 2025 Bloomberg and Reuters articles and the Nov 12 2025 Reuters poll are over a year old; they describe expectations and a cut that already occurred in Dec 2025 and therefore are stale for predicting the Dec 2026 decision. The Fed calendar page is current (retrieved Oct 18 2026).

What would change the answer

  • —An official Fed press release after the Dec 2026 meeting announcing a rate cut.
  • —Release of the Dec 2026 FOMC minutes showing a consensus to cut.
  • —A new market‑based probability (e.g., Fed funds futures) indicating >80 % chance of a cut at Dec 2026.
  • —Updated macroeconomic data (inflation, unemployment) that signal a need for easing before Dec 2026.
  • —A revised forecast from major banks or analysts (e.g., Goldman Sachs) that now expects a 2026 cut.

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