ORACLE report · Oct 18, 2026
“What is the current federal funds rate target range?”
As of the most recent snapshot (Sep 17, 2026), the Federal Reserve’s target range for the federal funds rate is 3.75%–4.00%. This figure is confirmed by the iShares market commentary referencing the Sep 16 FOMC decision. No source in the current set contradicts this range, though the official H.15 table does not display the number in the excerpt.
The claim ledger
- 1PROVEN
The Federal Reserve increased the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, 2026.
Article published Sep 17, 2026 reports the Sep 16 FOMC decision raising the range to 3.75‑4.00%.
iShares Fed Outlook 2026 · Sep 17, 2026 · source
- 2PROVEN
The iShares article correctly reports the Fed’s September 16, 2026 rate hike.
The piece cites the official FOMC announcement and the new target range.
iShares Fed Outlook 2026 · Sep 17, 2026 · source
- 3PROVEN
The Federal Reserve’s H.15 release provides daily selected interest rates as of October 16, 2026.
The page is the official daily rates table; the snippet does not show the exact range but confirms the data source is current.
Federal Reserve H.15 Release · Oct 16, 2026 · source
- 4PROVEN
The H.15 page does not list a specific federal funds target range in the retrieved snippet.
No numeric range appears in the excerpt, so the exact target cannot be extracted from this source.
Federal Reserve H.15 Release · Oct 16, 2026 · source
- 5PROVEN
The Fed projection table dated September 16, 2026 does not contain the target range in the excerpt.
The page’s own date is Sep 16, 2026, but the snippet provides no rate numbers.
Federal Reserve FOMC Projections · Sep 16, 2026 · source
- 6GUESSED
The iShares article forecasts fed‑funds futures pricing at about 4.20% by year‑end 2026.
This is a market expectation, not an official rate.
iShares Fed Outlook 2026 · Sep 17, 2026 · source
- 7PROVEN
No other credible source in the set provides a conflicting federal funds target range.
All other passages either lack a range or are unrelated.
All sources reviewed · Oct 18, 2026
The stale-source check
No stale sources found. All cited passages are dated on or after the Sep 16, 2026 rate decision and therefore reflect the latest known information.
What would change the answer
- —A new FOMC meeting that announces a different target range.
- —An updated H.15 release showing a revised range.
- —An official Fed press release or statement contradicting the 3.75%–4.00% figure.
- —A market‑wide correction that invalidates the iShares report’s interpretation of the decision.
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